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Red116
347845.8
32115.8
327638.3
Blue112
207542.7
449933.2
427028.4
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions105119050150200116112

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.80.5
45.546.0
Auto15.1
Teleop24.4
End6.3
red by 3.1
2075
#15
42.70.9
42.041.1
Auto14.2
Teleop24.2
End4.2
Second
3276
#14
38.30.5
35.936.4
Auto8.4
Teleop24.5
End5.4
red by 5.0
4499
#20
33.20.9
34.233.2
Auto11.8
Teleop17.3
End4.1
Third
321
#43
15.80.5
15.415.9
Auto10.3
Teleop5.9
End-0.3
blue by 12.6
4270
#38
28.40.9
29.728.7
Auto8.6
Teleop15.0
End4.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
81%Melody oddsEarned82%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
85%Ensemble oddsEarned90%Ensemble oddsEarned