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Red107
402836.8
394025.7
174728.4
Blue126
248144.9
198734.8
23418.4
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions98103050150200107126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4028
#35
36.80.6
36.236.8
Auto12.8
Teleop19.8
End4.2
blue by 8.1
44.92.1
43.845.9
Auto12.5
Teleop27.8
End4.5
Second
1747
#32
28.40.6
27.828.4
Auto7.4
Teleop17.8
End3.2
blue by 6.4
1987
#33
34.82.1
32.734.8
Auto14.2
Teleop17.4
End3.2
Third
3940
#47
25.70.6
25.125.7
Auto9.9
Teleop12.2
End3.6
red by 7.3
234
#54
18.42.1
16.318.4
Auto4.9
Teleop12.8
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
63%Melody oddsEarned83%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
72%Ensemble oddsMissed42%Ensemble oddsEarned