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Red108
441610.1
169050.4
263033.6
Blue65
555420.9
598724.8
565421.5
75%Model gave it25%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions867240608010012010865

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.41.8
47.849.6
Auto16.8
Teleop28.2
End5.4
red by 25.6
5987
#11
24.80.2
19.319.1
Auto4.5
Teleop17.6
End2.7
Second
33.61.8
22.624.4
Auto13.0
Teleop18.5
End2.0
red by 12.1
5654
#13
21.50.2
22.322.1
Auto7.1
Teleop10.0
End4.4
Third
4416
#40
10.11.8
5.37.1
Auto4.8
Teleop4.6
End0.7
blue by 10.9
5554
#41
20.90.2
25.024.7
Auto10.8
Teleop7.8
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
74%Melody oddsEarned78%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
38%Ensemble oddsMissed74%Ensemble oddsEarned