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Red89
223139.9
441610.1
555420.9
Blue75
267910.9
331621.4
561429.5
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8362401001208975

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
39.90.8
40.741.5
Auto16.0
Teleop19.9
End4.0
red by 10.4
29.50.9
29.730.6
Auto10.7
Teleop15.9
End2.9
Second
5554
#41
20.90.8
21.422.1
Auto10.8
Teleop7.8
End2.3
blue by 0.5
3316
#19
21.40.9
18.119.1
Auto9.4
Teleop9.6
End2.4
Third
4416
#40
10.10.8
10.511.3
Auto4.8
Teleop4.6
End0.7
blue by 0.8
2679
#31
10.90.9
10.911.9
Auto2.1
Teleop5.8
End2.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsEarned59%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
63%Ensemble oddsMissed18%Ensemble oddsEarned