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Red99
157428.2
563514.9
331618.7
Blue62
433815.7
974017.7
306522.3
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions615801001502009962

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.22.3
25.227.4
Auto10.5
Teleop14.3
End3.5
red by 5.9
3065
#10
22.30.6
20.921.5
Auto7.8
Teleop13.9
End0.6
Second
3316
#25
18.72.3
16.719.0
Auto8.1
Teleop9.2
End1.4
red by 1.1
17.70.6
17.518.1
Auto5.4
Teleop10.2
End2.1
Third
5635
#15
14.92.3
13.115.3
Auto4.8
Teleop9.8
End0.3
blue by 0.8
4338
#18
15.70.6
14.314.9
Auto6.2
Teleop9.3
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
69%Melody oddsEarned52%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
34%Ensemble oddsEarned9%Ensemble oddsMissed