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Red80
209617.6
974012.6
263027.6
Blue75
19437.6
561432.0
610424.5
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions676840506080908075

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27.60.2
31.431.6
Auto9.2
Teleop16.9
End1.5
blue by 4.4
32.00.7
28.929.6
Auto13.0
Teleop17.5
End1.5
Second
2096
#11
17.60.2
18.018.1
Auto7.2
Teleop9.3
End1.1
blue by 6.8
24.50.7
20.821.5
Auto7.2
Teleop15.6
End1.6
Third
9740
#10
12.60.2
13.313.5
Auto3.1
Teleop9.0
End0.5
red by 5.0
1943
#20
7.60.7
9.810.5
Auto3.9
Teleop3.4
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
36%Melody oddsMissed64%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsEarned35%Ensemble oddsMissed