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Red155
170651.3
264243.0
543640.3
Blue116
295935.9
731229.4
461137.3
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions14510250200155116

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
51.31.9
52.754.6
Auto17.0
Teleop28.1
End6.2
red by 14.0
37.31.1
33.734.8
Auto12.6
Teleop22.3
End2.4
Second
2642
#19
43.01.9
38.340.2
Auto10.7
Teleop30.1
End2.2
red by 7.1
2959
#16
35.91.1
35.136.2
Auto10.8
Teleop22.6
End2.4
Third
40.31.9
35.337.2
Auto10.1
Teleop26.8
End3.4
red by 10.9
7312
#66
29.41.1
28.529.7
Auto12.4
Teleop13.4
End3.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
99%Melody oddsEarned91%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
60%Ensemble oddsEarned48%Ensemble oddsMissed