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Red131
364731.9
439145.2
181639.1
Blue148
581342.0
147738.3
306141.3
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions127132050100150200250300131148

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
45.20.2
44.945.2
Auto17.1
Teleop25.2
End2.9
red by 3.2
42.00.5
41.041.5
Auto15.3
Teleop22.2
End4.5
Second
1816
#18
39.10.2
38.839.1
Auto11.5
Teleop26.2
End1.4
blue by 2.2
3061
#12
41.30.5
40.340.8
Auto10.9
Teleop27.8
End2.5
Third
3647
#35
31.90.2
31.731.9
Auto9.4
Teleop20.9
End1.6
blue by 6.4
1477
#32
38.30.5
37.437.9
Auto14.8
Teleop19.9
End3.7