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Red36
882517.5
176910.2
87196.7
Blue69
198734.8
19946.3
955115.5
11%Model gave it89%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions316102040801003669

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8825
#24
17.50.6
13.412.7
Auto6.0
Teleop9.7
End1.8
blue by 17.3
34.80.5
31.031.5
Auto14.3
Teleop17.4
End3.1
Second
1769
#31
10.20.6
13.112.5
Auto5.6
Teleop3.8
End0.8
blue by 5.3
9551
#11
15.50.9
13.514.3
Auto5.6
Teleop9.0
End0.9
Third
8719
#23
6.70.6
5.34.7
Auto2.1
Teleop3.5
End1.0
red by 0.4
1994
#30
6.30.9
6.97.7
Auto1.9
Teleop3.4
End1.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
10%Melody oddsMissed33%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsEarned24%Ensemble oddsMissed