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Red49
222110.3
97619.4
433626.4
Blue49
566521.6
255617.3
37539.2
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5146204060801004949

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4336
#24
26.4
Auto11.4
Teleop12.6
End2.4
red by 4.8
5665
#11
21.6
Auto5.1
Teleop16.0
End0.5
Second
2221
#26
10.3
Auto3.1
Teleop7.2
End-0.0
blue by 7.1
2556
#15
17.3
Auto7.4
Teleop8.5
End1.4
Third
9761
#45
9.4
Auto2.7
Teleop5.1
End1.6
red by 0.2
3753
#41
9.2
Auto4.7
Teleop3.9
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
27%Melody oddsMissed18%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
10%Ensemble oddsMissed31%Ensemble oddsMissed