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Red120
473839.2
191220.9
347840.9
Blue82
406525.1
552615.7
908437.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions112845010015020012082

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
40.90.5
40.040.5
Auto11.5
Teleop24.5
End4.9
red by 3.6
37.30.1
37.637.7
Auto15.5
Teleop16.3
End5.5
Second
39.20.5
38.338.8
Auto14.7
Teleop22.0
End2.6
red by 14.1
25.10.1
25.425.5
Auto6.4
Teleop16.2
End2.5
Third
1912
#36
20.90.5
20.020.5
Auto5.5
Teleop14.7
End0.7
red by 5.1
5526
#21
15.70.1
16.116.1
Auto5.0
Teleop10.9
End-0.2