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Red70
17616.4
19026.7
71625.5
Blue16
196515.4
175717.6
242319.9
41%Model gave it59%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions54552030405060707016

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
190
#19
26.70.7
19.520.2
Auto6.7
Teleop18.3
End1.7
red by 6.8
2423
#22
19.92.6
15.512.9
Auto7.0
Teleop11.9
End1.0
Second
716
#8
25.50.7
20.621.3
Auto12.5
Teleop11.0
End2.0
red by 7.9
1757
#16
17.64.3
19.315.0
Auto7.2
Teleop8.7
End1.7
Third
1761
#23
6.40.7
8.99.6
Auto2.9
Teleop1.9
End1.6
blue by 8.9
1965
#30
15.42.6
15.012.4
Auto5.0
Teleop7.1
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
52%Melody oddsEarned30%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
14%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed