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Red100
5126.4
686114.5
608134.2
Blue83
283422.4
57317.5
30223.4
54%Model gave it46%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7371405060809010011010083

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.21.5
31.633.1
Auto14.5
Teleop16.6
End3.1
red by 10.9
302
#6
23.41.1
23.324.4
Auto7.0
Teleop12.0
End4.4
Second
51
#10
26.41.5
22.223.7
Auto11.7
Teleop12.3
End2.5
red by 4.0
2834
#13
22.41.1
23.624.7
Auto6.9
Teleop12.1
End3.4
Third
6861
#12
14.51.5
11.913.4
Auto6.6
Teleop5.9
End1.9
blue by 3.0
573
#18
17.51.1
17.618.7
Auto5.5
Teleop7.9
End4.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
38%Melody oddsEarned47%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
25%Ensemble oddsEarned83%Ensemble oddsMissed