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Red105
30223.4
5126.4
353834.1
Blue35
43955.6
686114.5
54823.4
83%Model gave it17%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9152015020010535

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
34.10.8
32.533.3
Auto11.5
Teleop18.6
End4.1
red by 10.7
548
#19
23.41.2
30.829.6
Auto9.3
Teleop11.9
End2.2
Second
51
#10
26.40.8
26.727.5
Auto11.7
Teleop12.3
End2.5
red by 11.9
6861
#12
14.51.2
9.68.4
Auto6.6
Teleop5.9
End1.9
Third
302
#6
23.40.8
18.619.4
Auto7.0
Teleop12.0
End4.4
red by 17.8
4395
#28
5.61.2
10.89.6
Auto4.3
Teleop0.7
End0.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
10%Melody oddsEarned15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
34%Ensemble oddsMissed48%Ensemble oddsMissed