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Red52
62019.5
127717.8
81118.2
Blue7
59028.7
55636.6
320510.9
59%Model gave it41%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions51380206080100120140160527

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
811
#11
18.20.5
15.415.9
Auto8.6
Teleop7.4
End2.2
red by 7.3
3205
#24
10.93.2
13.910.7
Auto4.6
Teleop5.5
End0.7
Second
1277
#19
17.80.5
19.920.4
Auto5.4
Teleop9.8
End2.7
red by 9.2
5902
#27
8.73.2
12.69.4
Auto3.1
Teleop3.2
End2.4
Third
6201
#22
9.50.9
9.09.9
Auto3.4
Teleop5.2
End1.0
red by 3.0
5563
#36
6.63.2
9.46.2
Auto2.6
Teleop3.8
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
26%Melody oddsEarned19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed13%Ensemble oddsMissed