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Red116
17816.4
740730.6
169936.3
Blue64
693321.1
549415.0
870925.0
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8356204010012014011664

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
36.32.3
27.329.6
Auto12.1
Teleop20.8
End3.4
red by 11.3
25.00.7
19.019.6
Auto7.6
Teleop14.8
End2.7
Second
30.62.3
28.630.9
Auto9.7
Teleop15.5
End5.4
red by 9.4
6933
#17
21.11.1
19.320.4
Auto10.8
Teleop7.6
End2.7
Third
178
#28
16.42.3
15.718.0
Auto4.7
Teleop9.4
End2.3
red by 1.4
5494
#34
15.00.7
15.816.5
Auto4.1
Teleop9.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
73%Melody oddsEarned64%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
24%Ensemble oddsEarned30%Ensemble oddsMissed