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Red52
55824.5
21709.4
346122.1
Blue71
83917.5
109918.3
693321.1
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5960405070805271

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
558
#13
24.50.1
23.523.4
Auto5.7
Teleop15.4
End3.4
red by 3.3
6933
#17
21.11.6
19.521.0
Auto10.8
Teleop7.6
End2.7
Second
3461
#16
22.10.1
22.222.1
Auto5.4
Teleop16.1
End0.6
red by 3.8
18.31.2
16.617.8
Auto6.4
Teleop8.6
End3.3
Third
2170
#26
9.40.1
8.38.1
Auto3.1
Teleop4.4
End1.9
blue by 8.1
839
#23
17.51.2
17.418.6
Auto3.0
Teleop12.3
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
74%Melody oddsEarned67%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
18%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsEarned