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Red78
175720.6
404833.2
662013.0
Blue56
15121.0
860417.5
673122.4
42%Model gave it58%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions646750607080907856

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.21.3
29.731.0
Auto12.0
Teleop17.6
End3.6
red by 10.8
22.40.3
21.020.7
Auto8.9
Teleop10.9
End2.6
Second
1757
#15
20.61.3
17.418.7
Auto6.6
Teleop12.6
End1.4
blue by 0.4
151
#12
21.00.3
21.421.1
Auto8.1
Teleop12.1
End0.8
Third
6620
#29
13.01.3
11.612.8
Auto5.4
Teleop5.6
End2.0
blue by 4.5
8604
#16
17.50.3
17.917.6
Auto7.0
Teleop7.7
End2.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
59%Melody oddsEarned68%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsEarned20%Ensemble oddsMissed