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Red38
29148.7
450511.7
58308.8
Blue64
632618.6
68628.4
253417.2
1%Model gave it99%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions135802040801003864

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4505
#17
11.70.4
7.37.7
Auto5.8
Teleop5.3
End0.7
blue by 16.7
686
#11
28.41.0
21.322.3
Auto14.4
Teleop13.2
End0.8
Second
5830
#22
8.80.4
5.55.9
Auto4.1
Teleop3.6
End1.1
blue by 9.8
18.61.0
15.816.8
Auto8.3
Teleop8.0
End2.3
Third
2914
#32
8.70.4
4.54.9
Auto2.6
Teleop5.3
End0.8
blue by 8.5
2534
#18
17.21.0
9.810.8
Auto8.0
Teleop7.1
End2.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
5%Melody oddsMissed16%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
4%Ensemble oddsEarned9%Ensemble oddsMissed