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Red21
29144.5
14188.8
68622.5
Blue55
374815.2
511517.9
907225.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4039203050602155

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
686
#11
22.51.5
15.414.0
Auto11.3
Teleop10.7
End0.4
blue by 2.8
25.32.0
12.914.9
Auto9.9
Teleop14.7
End0.7
Second
1418
#22
8.81.5
10.28.7
Auto1.1
Teleop6.1
End1.6
blue by 9.1
17.92.0
11.213.1
Auto7.5
Teleop9.0
End1.3
Third
2914
#29
4.51.5
8.57.0
Auto0.7
Teleop2.8
End1.0
blue by 10.7
3748
#15
15.22.0
13.315.3
Auto6.2
Teleop7.5
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed19%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed