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Red47
233722.7
528214.3
92048.4
Blue43
52399.7
96729.4
570818.2
77%Model gave it23%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions48330204060804743

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2337
#13
22.70.5
21.020.5
Auto10.2
Teleop12.1
End0.4
red by 4.4
5708
#10
18.20.8
15.216.0
Auto8.3
Teleop9.0
End0.9
Second
5282
#22
14.30.3
13.313.0
Auto3.1
Teleop10.2
End0.9
red by 4.5
5239
#34
9.71.2
9.410.5
Auto5.0
Teleop2.9
End1.8
Third
9204
#24
8.40.3
7.57.2
Auto4.0
Teleop3.1
End1.2
blue by 1.1
9672
#38
9.41.2
7.18.3
Auto4.4
Teleop5.2
End-0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
20%Melody oddsMissed25%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsEarned20%Ensemble oddsMissed