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Red70
439510.8
610111.1
332228.0
Blue32
309810.6
92117.0
107630.2
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions465702040801007032

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.01.5
23.525.0
Auto15.1
Teleop11.0
End2.0
blue by 2.1
30.21.2
30.429.2
Auto9.7
Teleop17.8
End2.6
Second
6101
#26
11.11.5
10.211.7
Auto4.5
Teleop3.4
End3.2
red by 0.5
3098
#18
10.61.6
13.211.6
Auto3.2
Teleop4.7
End2.7
Third
4395
#14
10.81.5
9.210.7
Auto6.2
Teleop1.8
End2.8
red by 3.8
9211
#40
7.01.2
6.65.4
Auto3.3
Teleop1.8
End1.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
8%Melody oddsEarned38%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
28%Ensemble oddsEarned12%Ensemble oddsMissed