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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions33361020304050602310

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
15.90.8
13.712.9
Auto5.3
Teleop7.9
End2.6
red by 4.3
3875
#25
11.62.5
9.87.4
Auto3.8
Teleop6.3
End1.5
Second
9566
#14
13.40.8
8.98.1
Auto3.1
Teleop9.3
End1.0
red by 1.9
4983
#24
11.52.5
12.510.1
Auto4.6
Teleop6.4
End0.6
Third
7810
#34
0.50.8
7.66.8
Auto-1.1
Teleop0.9
End0.7
blue by 8.1
4337
#29
8.62.5
9.77.3
Auto3.5
Teleop4.7
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed14%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
8%Ensemble oddsMissed9%Ensemble oddsMissed