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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions52280204060808025

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.23.5
23.026.5
Auto14.0
Teleop18.0
End1.2
red by 20.2
5535
#22
13.00.9
9.58.6
Auto4.9
Teleop6.3
End1.8
Second
4325
#11
16.43.5
11.214.7
Auto8.1
Teleop7.0
End1.3
red by 5.6
9758
#28
10.90.9
9.38.4
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End0.5
Third
15.93.5
9.713.1
Auto5.3
Teleop7.9
End2.6
red by 5.5
5314
#13
10.40.9
9.48.5
Auto3.2
Teleop6.8
End0.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
28%Melody oddsEarned11%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed