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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions403602060806241

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
19.31.9
16.318.2
Auto5.7
Teleop12.0
End1.5
red by 2.9
4325
#11
16.41.0
16.315.3
Auto8.1
Teleop7.0
End1.3
Second
12.51.7
10.612.3
Auto4.3
Teleop7.2
End1.0
blue by 0.9
9566
#14
13.41.0
14.013.0
Auto3.1
Teleop9.3
End1.0
Third
9758
#28
10.91.7
8.910.6
Auto3.8
Teleop6.6
End0.5
red by 7.8
8297
#32
3.01.0
2.91.9
Auto2.0
Teleop1.0
End0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
8%Melody oddsEarned30%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
5%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsEarned