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Red52
611421.6
14115.3
716617.3
Blue78
360329.2
51838.1
917622.3
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions63644050607080905278

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
21.61.1
22.821.6
Auto10.3
Teleop8.4
End2.9
blue by 7.5
29.21.4
27.729.2
Auto9.7
Teleop18.0
End1.5
Second
7166
#19
17.31.1
19.618.5
Auto8.9
Teleop7.1
End1.2
blue by 5.0
22.31.4
20.822.3
Auto9.9
Teleop11.2
End1.1
Third
141
#16
15.31.1
16.415.3
Auto5.5
Teleop7.4
End2.4
red by 7.2
5183
#15
8.11.4
7.79.2
Auto1.4
Teleop3.7
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
61%Melody oddsMissed58%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
16%Ensemble oddsMissed14%Ensemble oddsMissed