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Red54
436236.6
439819.0
47374.8
Blue57
663714.6
239921.4
317522.9
49%Model gave it51%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions6668203040506080905457

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4362
#23
36.60.5
37.236.7
Auto10.8
Teleop22.3
End3.6
red by 13.7
3175
#17
22.90.2
23.022.8
Auto8.5
Teleop13.2
End1.2
Second
4398
#12
19.00.5
18.918.4
Auto9.2
Teleop7.5
End2.3
blue by 2.3
2399
#10
21.40.2
21.421.3
Auto7.6
Teleop11.3
End2.5
Third
4737
#22
4.80.5
5.34.8
Auto3.2
Teleop-0.2
End1.9
blue by 9.8
6637
#16
14.60.2
15.115.0
Auto6.5
Teleop5.5
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed45%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsEarned12%Ensemble oddsMissed