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Red55
509021.8
81518.6
60298.5
Blue65
118918.7
54986.9
661825.1
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5551204060801005565

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5090
#12
21.80.1
21.922.1
Auto11.5
Teleop8.5
End1.8
blue by 3.3
6618
#10
25.10.3
23.724.0
Auto9.7
Teleop12.8
End2.6
Second
815
#3
18.60.1
18.818.9
Auto8.5
Teleop7.8
End2.2
blue by 0.1
1189
#11
18.70.3
17.217.5
Auto5.9
Teleop11.8
End1.0
Third
6029
#25
8.50.1
8.68.8
Auto3.2
Teleop3.5
End1.8
red by 1.6
5498
#29
6.90.3
5.55.8
Auto-0.4
Teleop5.6
End1.7