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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1017105015010160

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
43.10.8
36.136.9
Auto14.3
Teleop23.4
End5.4
red by 10.1
2959
#12
33.00.8
28.527.7
Auto10.4
Teleop20.0
End2.5
Second
5907
#17
26.90.8
36.136.9
Auto10.7
Teleop13.7
End2.6
red by 1.2
244
#26
25.70.8
25.724.9
Auto6.5
Teleop16.5
End2.6
Third
6078
#24
20.60.8
15.316.0
Auto6.5
Teleop9.4
End4.6
red by 6.2
2224
#38
14.40.8
13.212.3
Auto4.6
Teleop8.2
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
96%Melody oddsEarned62%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsEarned17%Ensemble oddsMissed