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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103835015010191

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
818
#1
34.00.0
31.731.8
Auto10.6
Teleop20.9
End2.4
blue by 9.1
43.10.9
40.841.7
Auto14.3
Teleop23.4
End5.4
Second
1250
#10
32.60.0
32.632.6
Auto10.1
Teleop19.0
End3.5
red by 12.2
5577
#29
20.40.9
19.720.6
Auto7.4
Teleop11.0
End2.0
Third
5907
#17
26.90.0
26.226.3
Auto10.7
Teleop13.7
End2.6
red by 9.0
6152
#36
17.90.9
17.017.9
Auto6.0
Teleop10.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
98%Melody oddsEarned90%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
47%Ensemble oddsMissed24%Ensemble oddsEarned