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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions103682040608012014016018010560

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2959
#12
33.00.6
30.431.0
Auto10.4
Teleop20.0
End2.5
red by 9.3
8612
#30
23.70.4
24.323.9
Auto7.8
Teleop13.1
End2.8
Second
30.60.6
30.330.9
Auto7.9
Teleop20.5
End2.3
red by 9.2
3618
#33
21.40.4
21.521.1
Auto9.0
Teleop9.5
End2.9
Third
4998
#20
30.30.6
28.729.2
Auto7.6
Teleop20.2
End2.5
red by 11.8
9558
#25
18.50.4
19.919.5
Auto4.1
Teleop12.1
End2.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
95%Melody oddsEarned70%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
46%Ensemble oddsMissed19%Ensemble oddsMissed