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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1115301001508065

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
27
#3
43.51.2
42.541.3
Auto12.6
Teleop26.8
End4.1
red by 23.1
5505
#26
20.40.5
24.825.4
Auto8.0
Teleop9.1
End3.3
Second
548
#8
28.01.2
24.823.6
Auto8.9
Teleop15.7
End3.4
red by 11.8
5901
#37
16.20.5
19.620.2
Auto6.7
Teleop7.4
End2.1
Third
7211
#34
23.91.2
26.325.1
Auto6.0
Teleop15.6
End2.3
red by 9.7
6085
#39
14.20.5
10.310.9
Auto5.7
Teleop6.0
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
93%Melody oddsEarned41%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
54%Ensemble oddsMissed18%Ensemble oddsEarned