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Red79
171834.2
20118.6
776824.5
Blue95
477931.7
214529.3
766021.3
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions74854060801001201407995

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1718
#15
34.20.6
30.230.8
Auto12.6
Teleop19.3
End2.3
red by 2.4
31.70.6
33.033.6
Auto8.0
Teleop20.5
End3.2
Second
7768
#31
24.50.6
22.723.3
Auto9.4
Teleop14.6
End0.4
blue by 4.8
2145
#17
29.30.6
23.624.2
Auto10.1
Teleop16.8
End2.4
Third
201
#33
18.60.6
15.516.0
Auto5.1
Teleop10.1
End3.3
blue by 2.7
21.30.6
19.420.0
Auto8.3
Teleop9.3
End3.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
82%Melody oddsEarned87%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed59%Ensemble oddsEarned