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Red60
92429.2
24525.5
370726.9
Blue68
81517.7
361814.4
332225.5
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8062020401001206068

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3707
#10
26.91.3
29.127.8
Auto7.9
Teleop15.9
End3.1
red by 1.4
3322
#16
25.50.2
28.728.9
Auto9.3
Teleop12.6
End3.6
Second
245
#30
25.51.3
30.228.9
Auto7.6
Teleop16.4
End1.5
red by 7.8
815
#17
17.70.2
16.717.0
Auto5.6
Teleop11.0
End1.1
Third
9242
#38
9.21.3
10.49.1
Auto3.0
Teleop4.1
End2.1
blue by 5.2
3618
#31
14.40.2
12.212.5
Auto6.9
Teleop5.9
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
29%Melody oddsEarned36%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
25%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed