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Red53
99927.4
353931.5
366711.1
Blue55
11888.1
561219.4
233731.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions7169506080905355

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.51.6
38.436.8
Auto10.7
Teleop17.5
End3.3
red by 0.2
31.40.6
32.932.4
Auto7.1
Teleop20.9
End3.4
Second
3667
#39
11.11.6
19.317.7
Auto4.7
Teleop5.7
End0.7
blue by 8.3
5612
#33
19.40.6
22.221.6
Auto6.7
Teleop9.3
End3.4
Third
9992
#40
7.42.7
9.36.6
Auto4.4
Teleop2.3
End0.3
blue by 0.8
1188
#32
8.10.6
8.47.9
Auto3.4
Teleop3.6
End1.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
49%Melody oddsMissed12%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
27%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed