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Red80
49426.9
81517.7
612014.4
Blue72
654819.6
778414.3
860833.7
23%Model gave it77%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions609102040801001201401608072

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
494
#7
26.90.7
26.727.4
Auto8.9
Teleop12.7
End5.3
blue by 6.9
8608
#12
33.70.4
39.439.0
Auto14.0
Teleop15.3
End4.5
Second
815
#17
17.70.7
16.917.6
Auto5.6
Teleop11.0
End1.1
blue by 1.8
6548
#34
19.60.4
22.722.3
Auto6.4
Teleop10.3
End2.9
Third
6120
#14
14.40.7
13.414.1
Auto7.3
Teleop4.5
End2.6
Level
7784
#29
14.30.4
16.215.8
Auto4.0
Teleop8.9
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
55%Melody oddsEarned59%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
52%Ensemble oddsEarned74%Ensemble oddsMissed