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Red74
366820.6
776935.1
543631.2
Blue80
283222.0
364126.2
584326.8
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions110790501502002507480

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.11.8
33.832.0
Auto13.3
Teleop19.3
End2.5
red by 8.3
5843
#21
26.80.3
28.528.2
Auto10.8
Teleop14.9
End1.1
Second
5436
#25
31.21.8
40.338.5
Auto9.0
Teleop19.0
End3.2
red by 5.1
26.20.3
27.026.7
Auto5.3
Teleop18.5
End2.4
Third
3668
#30
20.61.8
22.120.3
Auto8.8
Teleop10.0
End1.9
blue by 1.3
22.00.3
19.319.0
Auto9.1
Teleop10.3
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
79%Melody oddsEarned86%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
17%Ensemble oddsMissed8%Ensemble oddsMissed