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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions503802060804751

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
28.30.3
21.521.8
Auto15.6
Teleop11.3
End1.4
red by 12.2
16.11.7
12.814.5
Auto7.1
Teleop8.1
End0.9
Second
7784
#19
16.20.2
12.913.2
Auto3.6
Teleop10.5
End2.1
red by 1.2
5612
#17
14.91.7
13.114.7
Auto5.2
Teleop8.8
End0.9
Third
5235
#35
9.80.3
9.59.8
Auto3.7
Teleop5.0
End1.1
blue by 4.6
9572
#18
14.41.7
10.111.8
Auto5.5
Teleop7.3
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
13%Melody oddsMissed12%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
12%Ensemble oddsMissed6%Ensemble oddsMissed