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Red70
496727.7
95429.1
546217.0
Blue40
556722.4
72034.9
95497.4
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions53300204060807040

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4967
#10
27.71.0
25.426.4
Auto8.3
Teleop16.5
End2.8
red by 5.3
5567
#26
22.40.7
19.520.2
Auto8.9
Teleop10.2
End3.3
Second
5462
#24
17.01.0
12.513.5
Auto5.6
Teleop9.3
End2.1
red by 9.6
9549
#39
7.40.7
6.57.2
Auto2.5
Teleop3.5
End1.3
Third
9542
#33
9.11.0
7.68.6
Auto5.3
Teleop3.5
End0.4
red by 4.2
7203
#36
4.90.7
4.14.7
Auto3.5
Teleop-0.5
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
32%Melody oddsMissed8%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
13%Ensemble oddsMissed15%Ensemble oddsMissed