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Red52
608135.5
505619.7
52606.9
Blue66
920823.7
365818.9
96388.6
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions624220801005266

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6081
#15
35.50.4
30.930.5
Auto10.8
Teleop21.8
End3.0
red by 11.8
23.70.6
19.820.4
Auto7.9
Teleop12.7
End3.1
Second
5056
#17
19.70.5
13.012.6
Auto7.0
Teleop11.1
End1.6
red by 0.8
3658
#29
18.90.6
10.310.9
Auto8.0
Teleop7.9
End3.0
Third
5260
#37
6.90.4
9.49.0
Auto4.1
Teleop1.8
End1.1
blue by 1.7
9638
#31
8.60.6
10.010.6
Auto4.5
Teleop2.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
73%Melody oddsMissed23%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
24%Ensemble oddsMissed32%Ensemble oddsMissed