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Red82
85820.8
365818.9
608135.5
Blue62
496727.7
387522.2
765814.6
55%Model gave it45%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions77710501001508262

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6081
#15
35.50.2
33.433.6
Auto10.8
Teleop21.8
End3.0
red by 7.9
4967
#10
27.70.1
27.727.7
Auto8.3
Teleop16.5
End2.8
Second
858
#5
20.80.2
18.718.9
Auto8.4
Teleop9.9
End2.4
blue by 1.4
22.20.1
22.322.2
Auto6.5
Teleop12.3
End3.4
Third
3658
#29
18.90.2
16.817.0
Auto8.0
Teleop7.9
End3.0
red by 4.3
7658
#18
14.60.1
14.714.6
Auto5.2
Teleop6.9
End2.5