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Red82
525623.8
505619.7
400425.3
Blue94
608135.5
365818.9
85820.8
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions757740601001201408294

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4004
#12
25.30.3
25.025.3
Auto9.0
Teleop14.4
End2.0
blue by 10.2
6081
#15
35.50.5
33.634.1
Auto10.8
Teleop21.8
End3.0
Second
23.80.3
23.523.8
Auto6.5
Teleop14.3
End3.0
red by 3.0
858
#5
20.80.5
18.919.4
Auto8.4
Teleop9.9
End2.4
Third
5056
#17
19.70.3
19.419.7
Auto7.0
Teleop11.1
End1.6
red by 0.8
3658
#29
18.90.5
17.017.5
Auto8.0
Teleop7.9
End3.0