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Red18
191817.3
59829.6
92275.1
Blue30
516621.2
96505.5
851713.4
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions384702060801830

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1918
#19
17.32.2
14.812.6
Auto2.8
Teleop12.6
End1.9
blue by 3.9
5166
#18
21.21.3
20.819.5
Auto6.3
Teleop10.8
End4.1
Second
5982
#23
9.62.2
9.27.0
Auto3.9
Teleop3.3
End2.3
blue by 3.8
8517
#17
13.41.3
13.211.9
Auto4.2
Teleop7.0
End2.2
Third
9227
#26
5.12.2
11.49.3
Auto1.9
Teleop2.7
End0.5
blue by 0.4
9650
#32
5.50.8
7.76.9
Auto1.5
Teleop3.4
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsMissed15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
15%Ensemble oddsMissed15%Ensemble oddsMissed