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Red81
607817.1
654824.6
923720.6
Blue25
722516.3
564114.4
78188.3
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions494020306070808125

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.62.5
13.616.2
Auto10.5
Teleop11.5
End2.5
red by 8.3
7225
#27
16.30.8
15.714.9
Auto5.3
Teleop9.6
End1.4
Second
20.61.5
16.217.7
Auto7.1
Teleop12.1
End1.4
red by 6.3
5641
#34
14.40.8
15.915.1
Auto5.1
Teleop8.6
End0.7
Third
6078
#14
17.11.5
13.414.9
Auto5.1
Teleop9.0
End3.1
red by 8.8
7818
#23
8.30.8
5.64.8
Auto2.2
Teleop5.2
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
21%Melody oddsEarned15%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
9%Ensemble oddsEarned7%Ensemble oddsMissed