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Red37
49887.7
97558.7
550118.5
Blue40
554715.3
607913.4
725011.6
34%Model gave it66%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions36432060803740

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5501
#16
18.50.2
17.417.6
Auto6.4
Teleop10.6
End1.4
red by 3.2
5547
#20
15.30.1
14.214.3
Auto5.2
Teleop8.9
End1.2
Second
9755
#32
8.70.2
8.58.7
Auto4.7
Teleop3.6
End0.5
blue by 4.7
6079
#12
13.40.1
13.013.1
Auto5.4
Teleop7.0
End1.0
Third
4988
#41
7.70.2
7.57.7
Auto2.9
Teleop2.7
End2.1
blue by 3.9
7250
#19
11.60.1
11.211.3
Auto6.0
Teleop4.6
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
5%Melody oddsMissed24%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
7%Ensemble oddsMissed12%Ensemble oddsMissed