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Red96
317535.7
955819.2
102329.9
Blue62
811513.8
719727.1
612021.3
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions8061401001209662

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.71.7
32.734.4
Auto14.1
Teleop18.8
End2.8
red by 8.6
27.10.3
24.725.0
Auto8.9
Teleop16.5
End1.8
Second
29.91.7
21.423.1
Auto9.5
Teleop18.0
End2.4
red by 8.6
21.30.3
19.719.9
Auto7.9
Teleop11.9
End1.6
Third
9558
#12
19.21.7
16.318.0
Auto4.3
Teleop13.3
End1.7
red by 5.4
8115
#13
13.80.3
13.213.5
Auto7.1
Teleop5.6
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
94%Melody oddsEarned36%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
20%Ensemble oddsMissed21%Ensemble oddsMissed