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Red64
118931.2
811513.8
26049.2
Blue42
52356.4
586015.5
555511.8
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions523702060801006442

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.21.3
25.426.7
Auto11.5
Teleop18.0
End1.7
red by 15.7
5860
#32
15.50.4
13.814.2
Auto6.3
Teleop8.3
End0.9
Second
8115
#13
13.81.3
13.014.3
Auto7.1
Teleop5.6
End1.1
red by 2.1
5555
#29
11.80.4
13.113.5
Auto4.7
Teleop7.0
End0.0
Third
2604
#25
9.21.3
6.78.0
Auto3.9
Teleop4.3
End1.1
red by 2.8
5235
#35
6.40.4
8.79.2
Auto1.3
Teleop3.8
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
36%Melody oddsEarned16%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
6%Ensemble oddsMissed3%Ensemble oddsMissed