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Red50
598216.6
924520.4
607316.9
Blue53
675318.3
519310.7
851724.3
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions423902060801001205053

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9245
#17
20.40.8
16.617.4
Auto5.6
Teleop13.5
End1.4
blue by 3.9
24.30.8
13.414.2
Auto9.4
Teleop12.5
End2.4
Second
6073
#12
16.90.8
11.812.6
Auto7.5
Teleop7.3
End2.1
blue by 1.5
6753
#20
18.30.8
14.615.5
Auto7.5
Teleop9.2
End1.7
Third
5982
#14
16.60.8
9.610.4
Auto3.7
Teleop10.0
End2.9
red by 5.8
5193
#18
10.70.8
7.58.3
Auto3.9
Teleop6.1
End0.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
19%Melody oddsMissed13%Melody oddsEarned
Ensemble
35%Ensemble oddsEarned5%Ensemble oddsMissed