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Red35
52318.9
851724.3
97317.8
Blue55
550911.8
515013.3
598216.6
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions46451020304050607080903555

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
24.30.4
23.723.3
Auto9.4
Teleop12.5
End2.4
red by 7.7
5982
#14
16.60.3
15.515.8
Auto3.7
Teleop10.0
End2.9
Second
5231
#36
8.90.5
9.48.9
Auto4.6
Teleop3.5
End0.8
blue by 4.4
5150
#25
13.30.3
13.113.3
Auto5.9
Teleop7.3
End0.1
Third
9731
#39
7.80.5
8.37.8
Auto6.1
Teleop1.0
End0.8
blue by 3.9
5509
#22
11.80.3
12.212.4
Auto3.5
Teleop6.5
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
22%Melody oddsMissed19%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
11%Ensemble oddsMissed16%Ensemble oddsMissed