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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions782902040601001208432

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
29.51.9
25.527.4
Auto12.5
Teleop14.3
End2.7
red by 14.4
548
#16
15.20.0
12.512.5
Auto5.2
Teleop9.4
End0.5
Second
67
#2
28.21.9
24.526.4
Auto10.4
Teleop12.1
End5.6
red by 17.3
9455
#30
10.80.0
11.011.0
Auto5.0
Teleop4.0
End1.8
Third
14.31.9
14.516.3
Auto5.0
Teleop8.2
End1.1
red by 7.2
4961
#22
7.10.0
8.48.4
Auto3.1
Teleop2.7
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Melody
61%Melody oddsEarned12%Melody oddsMissed
Ensemble
31%Ensemble oddsEarned7%Ensemble oddsMissed